Minibar and Loan Market Update from Bridge, March 2026

Welcome back to the Minibar +Loan Market Update, your monthly shot of what's moving hotel financing inMarch.

My name is Rohit Mathur (and yes, still typing these myself --- I did let Claude write one section this month though... can you guess which one?). I'm the co-founder and CEO of Bridge, a direct lender and marketplace for hotel loans. Before founding Bridge, I spent10+ years at Citi in capital markets.

This month: Gas prices, Hunter updates, a new partnership, and a brand new tool we're excited to share.

Great to see everyone at Hunter and we’re off to AAHOACON next!

🎯 TLDR: What'sMoving in the Loan Market:

1. Market Sentiment - Hunter Conference Takeaways: The new Hilton Signia venue (and Ludacris) was a hit! Sentiment was mixed - Q1 deal activity is up, but rising gas prices and geopolitical uncertainty are tempering optimism.
2. Gas Prices & Hotels: The Strait of Hormuz crisis sent gas from $2.81 to $3.63 in 8 weeks. What does that mean for your     hotel?
3. New Partnership Announcement: Bridge + Kalibri Labs - bringing AI-powered market intelligence to hotel owners and lenders
4. New Tool: Our Pro Forma Generator just got a massive upgrade - now powered by data from Kalibri, CoStar, HVS, and cost data from 10,000+ hotels. And it's free.

📉 Key Observations:

1.    Hunter HotelInvestment Conference Takeaways

Just got back from Hunter inAtlanta and here's the read on sentiment: mixed feelings.

On one hand, Q1 activity was genuinely encouraging. We saw more new construction starts, more deal flow, and a general sense that the tailwinds we've been talking about all year --- WorldCup demand coming this summer, lower interest rates, more lenders at the table, tariff pressure easing, costs stabilizing --- were finally translating into action.

On the other hand? The Strait ofHormuz crisis and rising gas prices have thrown a wrench into the narrative.Higher gas prices feed into higher inflation, which makes it harder for the Fed to cut rates, which keeps borrowing costs elevated. And in a World Cup year where we're counting on international and domestic travel to boost RevPAR -geopolitical uncertainty and $3.63 gas aren't exactly helpful.

So the mood was optimistic but cautious. People are moving forward, but with one eye on the headlines.

Kalibri Labs presented at Hunter --- here's what their data showed:

The big picture: 2025 was a step backward. Occupancy fell to 64.9% (down 1.6 points from 2024, still below2019), and while ADR grew modestly to $153.18, RevPAR declined 0.8% to $99.48because occupancy losses outweighed rate gains. The post-pandemic ADR recovery is leveling off.

A few data points that stood out:

• Weekends are carrying the industry.  RevPAR indexed against 2019 shows Friday and Saturday at 117-118% of pre-pandemic levels. Midweek is softer --- Monday and Tuesday sitting around 110-111%. Leisure is still the engine; business travel hasn't fully recovered.
• Extended stay is the bright spot at the lower end. Economy hotels saw their 7+ night stay share jump from 30% in 2019 to 38% in 2025, while one-night stays dropped from 70% to 61%. That's project crews, extended-stay demand, and longer leisure trips filling beds that used to rely on transient one-nighters.
• Brand.com is winning the distribution war. Brand.com grew from 21% of demand in 2019 to 26% in 2025 --- the biggest gainer. OTA grew modestly from 20% to 21%. Property direct (walk-ins, phone calls) dropped sharply from 32% to 28%. Here's the kicker: Brand.com     net ADR is $171 vs. OTA at $129 --- a $42 advantage per room night. On a profit-contribution basis (what Kalibri calls COPE ADR), loyalty bookings via Brand.com generate a 21.6% net advantage over OTA. If you're an owner, investing in your brand's loyalty program is one of the highest-ROI moves you can make right now.
• Loyalty programs keep growing. Loyalty demand share hit 56.7% in 2025, up from 49.7% in 2019. More than half of all hotel bookings are now loyalty-driven.
• 2026 forecast: another soft year. Kalibri is projecting occupancy declining to 63.9%, ADR growing just 0.5%, and RevPAR falling another 1.0% to $98.45. Their range is -1.5% to +1% --- essentially flat to slightly negative. Not a disaster, but not the rebound year many were hoping for.

The bottom line from Kalibri's data: There is no single narrative for U.S. hotels right now. Luxury and extended stay are performing well. Economy and midscale are under pressure from weakening demand and rising costs. Leisure continues to outperform commercial. And the brands that are investing in direct booking and loyalty are being rewarded with meaningfully better economics per room night.

2.   Gas Prices: WhatHotel Owners and Lenders Need to Know

Gas prices have been all over the headlines recently, so I wanted to dig into what this actually means for our industry.

Here's the situation: Regular gasoline went from $2.81/gallon in January to $3.63 by mid-March--- a 29% spike in under 8 weeks --- driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure after the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Diesel hit $4.89/gallon, up 34%in a single month. The EIA had been forecasting the cheapest gas year since2020; now they've revised their 2026 outlook significantly higher.

So... should you be worried?

The short answer:It depends on what you own and where.

Here's what the research tells us and this is backed by studies from Cornell University, STR, and others:

• At the aggregate level, the correlation between gas prices and RevPAR is surprisingly weak. Studies suggest gas prices alone have never caused a hotel downturn.
• But segment matters enormously. Research shows economy and midscale hotels are significantly more sensitive to gas price increases than upper-upscale or luxury properties, which show little to no measurable impact.
• Location amplifies everything. Highway and suburban hotels are the most gas-price-sensitive properties in the country. Studies suggest midscale highway properties feel roughly twice the demand impact     of comparable urban hotels when gas prices rise.

What does this mean for your deal?

• If you own or are lending on economy/midscale  highway hotels in drive-to leisure markets (think Myrtle Beach, Gulf Shores, Outer Banks, Wisconsin Dells, Branson): this is a real headwind layered on top of already-soft fundamentals. Economy RevPAR was already down 1.8% in 2025. Watch your NOIs closely.
• If you own or are lending on upper-upscale/luxury in urban or fly-to markets: you're largely insulated. These guests arrive by air and are far less price-sensitive to gas.
• Operating costs are the sleeper risk. Diesel at $4.89 is hitting linen/laundry delivery, F&B delivery, maintenance supplies --- basically anything that moves on a truck. That thin industrymargin doesn't leave much room for diesel-driven cost inflation.

Historical context:

My two cents: At current levels, gas prices are a headwind, not a hurricane. But if the Hormuz situation drags on and gas pushes past $4.50 ---that's when things start to get more uncomfortable, particularly for economy and midscale highway deals. If you're underwriting a deal in a drive-to market, it's worth stress testing your assumptions with gas at $4.50+. If you're in an urban or fly-to market, worth keeping an eye on but probably not something to lose sleep over just yet. As I write this, looks like there is some stabilization and reduction in prices… lets hope that continues

Sources: Cornell University (Walsh, Enz, Canina study), CBRE HotelsResearch, STR/CoStar, EIA March 2026 STEO, CNBC

3. 🤝 New Partnership Announcement:     Bridge + Kalibri Labs

We're thrilled to announce our partnership with Kalibri Labs --- one of the most respected data and analytics platforms in hospitality.

What does this mean for you?

• Deeper market intelligence: Kalibri's proprietary data goes beyond traditional benchmarks, offering granular insights into revenue trends by customer type and profit contribution. This data is now being integrated into Bridge's platform.
• Better underwriting for lenders: We're working with our lender network to incorporate Kalibri's market data into deal evaluation and risk assessment. This means lenders get visibility into the composition of RevPAR and customer acquisition costs --- not just top-line numbers.
• AI-native tools on the way: Together, we're building intelligent tools that can identify investment opportunities based on market signals, support dynamic underwriting and scenario modeling, and provide AI-driven performance benchmarking.

As Cindy Estis Green, CEO at Kalibri, put it: access to forward-looking market data that reveals a hotel's true potential is essential for accurate underwriting. That's exactly what we're building together.

This is one of several partnership announcements we'll be making in the coming months - stay tuned.

📣 Want to learn more? We're hosting a joint webinar with Kalibri Labs to dive deeper into the market intelligence, underwriting insights, and the new AI-native tools we're building together. REGISTER HERE  Kalibri Webinar

4.   🛠️ New Tool: ProForma Generator 2.0

We've completely upgraded our Five-ClickPro Forma Generator --- and it's still free.

What's ne

• Powered by data from leading source
• Cost data from 10,000+ hotels so you can see real margins by hotel type
• Works for hotels you own are building, or are buying
• Creates a full pro forma in minutes, not hours
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Whether you're a developer evaluating a new ground-up project, an owner looking to refinance, or a buyer underwriting an acquisition --- this tool gives you an institutional-quality starting point.

Try it free: proforma.bridgemarketplace.com  - give us feedback on what you’d like to see us build

Rates

The big story in rates this month is the yield curve. Mid-to-long treasury yields spiked inMarch --- the 10-year jumped 35 bps in one month - driven by the Hormuz oil shock reigniting inflation fears. The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% at their March 18 meeting, and Chair Powell indicated the bar for a rate hike remains high, but also that the projected rate cut won't happen if inflation progress stalls. Bottom line: don't expect rate relief anytime soon.

Recent Deal Close

Tru by Hilton —Titusville, FL — 106 Keys

About Bridge

We are the first fintech focusedon Hospitality loans and partners with Hilton, Hyatt, AAHOA, Choice, Red Roof,Kalibri Labs and others. We're also excited to have recently announced ourpartnership with Hyatt, bringing Bridge's financing tools and marketplace toHyatt's developer and owner community.

We've closed and funded $500.0million+ in loans in 2025 (Our 1st full year of Hotel Lending) and we only haveone goal:

🎯 Simplifying accessto competitive financing for your hotel loan.

Bridge MinibarUpdate 🍸 🍺

• The new NYC office and minibar     are opening on April 1st! Come visit!

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Rohit